Macro level of difficulty

Demand fall on world markets caused decrease of value flaw into the country. This factor in aggregate with speculating operations on interbank market is the main reason of hryvna’s devaluation. Experts are at variance forecasting influence of these factors on national currency exchange rate.

"Banks will be able to restructure their debts: ones will attract mother capital, others will seek payment slippage", – president of Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts Yuriy Prozorov forecasts.

"OVDP issue always been a kind of emission, but this money goes to recapitalization of banks, i.e. it does not get to market and does not affect the pressure of rate,– Mr. Prozorov says.– Speaking about this factor influence can be only in case of strengthen of social costs in the revision State budget-2009. In the meantime collected money is enough for pension payments and in the context of wages the response is arrear increase fixed by Goskomstat".

"Further panic is the main mover of devaluation, – Mr.Prozorov says. – Without this panic overcoming, stabilization of financial system is impossible".

According to Mr. Prozorov, long-term hryvna weakening by such level will mean “capitulation of Ukrainian economy” what the government will not allow. "Saving the rate depends only on political factors, the more so the hryvna is underrated now, so keeping the rate at the level of 7,5-7,58UAH/$ within next few months is real, - he says. – But the rate will depend to a large extend on whose interests are more privileged for the government – inner customers or exporters".

The source: Ъ-Ukraine